Nanotechnologists
Nanotechnology is concerned with building unimaginably tiny structures for incorporation in our bodies, the environment and every physical object we deal with. According to the US National Science Foundation, the essence of nanotechnology is the ability to work at the molecular level, atom by atom, to create large structures with fundamentally new molecular organisation.
There is tremendous excitement about this new technological frontier. Estimates suggest that around $10 billion globally is currently being invested in nanotechnology research and this sum is set to increase rapidly.
According to the publication, Trends in Nanotechnology Weekly, profitable developments in nanotechnology are likely to be achieved within the next 5 years. Nanotechnology spans so many areas (drug development, solar energy, sensors, glues, lubricants, fuels, textiles, hard drives, computer memory and optical components) the potential for new roles is substantial.

Ubicomp technologists
There is an increasing acknowledgement of the potential for a future world where every conceivable object could become embedded with micro-processors, low cost miniature sensors and transceivers. Quite simply, everyday objects from furniture to food & drink containers would acquire the ability to sense changes in their own state and transmit this information - the fridge senses when milk is low and orders it in. Alternatively, a book could sense when the final chapter is being read and order the next volume from Amazon, via a bluetooth signal to your PC.
There remain enormous technological challenges here (relating to size and power supply) but the potential areas for research and development are so wide, we believe a growing army of ubicomp technologists will emerge over the next decade.

Bioinformatics specialists
With the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2001, the human DNA sequence provides drug developers with an inkling of the genetic foundations of diseases. However, the development of resulting drugs for treatment is a massive operation requiring the comparison of genes and their activity in healthy and diseased tissue and cells. This is resulting in a new field where biology, chemistry and information technology merge together into new roles falling under the heading of bioinformatics. Huge amounts of complex information are generated in this process, requiring next generation information technology.
Bioinformatics is expected to be particularly significant in cancer research. In 1997, the US National Cancer Institute established the Cancer Genome Anatomy Project to catalogue the DNA fingerprint of tumours. Researchers are now making huge strides toward understanding the molecular mechanics of tumour growth. Cancer biology research has reached a point of critical mass where bioinformatics will be crucial

Fuel cell technologists
The hydrogen fuel cell has been described as the next revolution in energy production. In his 2003 State of the Union address, President Bush committed tens of billions of dollars of government funding for fuel cell research. Fuel cells essentially generate electricity from hydrogen and major car manufacturers have already unveiled a range of fuel cell vehicles. There remain many challenges, concerning reducing the cost and increasing the power of fuel cells, together with the obvious changes required in the distribution network to provide hydrogen fuel.
Despite these challenges huge amounts of public and private investment are being poured into fuel cell research. The reason is simple, when one considers the enormous environmental benefits - the exhaust from a fuel cell engine is water.

Time consultancy and tasking
We live in a society where the perception (though not necessarily the reality) of being time harried is endemic and there is an increasing emphasis on the work-life balance. As people juggle work and family commitments, we envisage a substantial and growing opportunity for time consultants to undertake two key professional and practical functions; time audits and household tasking.
Professional - We envisage that in the future there will be substantial demand for personal audits of how people use their time.
Practical - With regard to household tasks, we are already seeing the emergence of companies providing comprehensive household services for time constrained single and double income households. These services could be expected to include finding hotels and booking holidays, organising gardeners, cleaners and food shopping, advising on the best plumbers and electricians and organising any repair work they might undertake.

Longevity consultants
The demand for longevity consultants is likely to grow rapidly over the coming decades. Longevity consultants will provide professional advice to an ageing population. This advice will span health, financial and lifestyle pursuits. Growth in demand for specialised longevity consultants will be driven by two parallel developments: (1) People are living longer. (2) The numbers of older people are increasing.
The median age of the population is expected to increase from 38 in 2001 to 45 in 2040. For the first time in history we are entering an era when people can reasonably expect to spend two decades in retirement prior to death. Over the next half century life expectancy for UK males is expected to rise from 75.7 to 80 and for females from 80.4 to 84.1 (Government Actuary Department figures).
United Nations projections show the rising future influence of older age cohorts will be considerable. The UK old age dependency ratio (those aged 65 years and over as a ratio of those aged between 15 and 64) will rise from 24% in 2000 to 35% in 2025 and 47% in 2050. Over the next decade the ratio will rise around 3%. As a result, there is likely to be a sharp increase in demand for advice from ‘groovy greys’ wanting to make the most of their time and maximise their longevity.

Personal dieticians and trainers
The positive links between exercise and diet and health are obvious. In an age of rising affluence we are seeing significant growth in demand for personal dieticians and trainers – people who ‘know your body better than you know it yourself’ and can advise on the optimum diet and fitness regime, based on your personal requirements. More and more personal lifestyle gurus will emerge, encouraged by individualist attitudes and facilitated by rising affluence. A trend, which was merely for the wealthy, will become much more widely spread in the future.

Fun employees
In 2002 Easy Jet advertised in the national press for a new position as ‘Head of Fun’. Whilst people naturally smile at such a job, the underlying logic behind such roles is simple and compelling, aiming to boost the productivity of the workforce and reduce the costs of high staff turnover. Fun workers will not be employed to turn the office into a party venue. Instead, they will focus on how to make work more enjoyable and as a result more productive. Clearly many aspects of many jobs can be unpleasant and that is just the way work is, but fun workers will be let loose to discover ways of improving these tasks. More generally, fun workers will aim to identify interesting ways of making all aspects of our working lives more enjoyable, whilst at the same time improving the bottom-line performance of the organisation.

Global matchmakers
Matchmaking services have been in existence for a long time, but they have tended to be country based. We believe there will be an increasing trend to establish matchmaking services on a global basis. This has the obvious potential benefit of widening the ‘catchment area’, particularly if he/she is looking for a particular type of person.
In an era of increasing globalisation, in business and travel, cross-cultural barriers to international relationships are already declining and will decline further.

Webucation architects
The American management guru, Peter Drucker, has speculated that on-line education could become the greatest economic opportunity of the 21st century. We agree that there is enormous potential in this area. Online delivery of education can obviously reap huge potential cost savings when set against the fixed costs of a college or university campus. The secret to success will be the design of effective delivery of course material. It is here that webucation architects will be so important. Webucation architects will be teachers and lecturers with the ability to communicate and inspire learning online.


10 hot jobs 2003-2010:

Plastic surgeons
A number of significant trends are expected to merge over the next decade in order to stimulate growth in the number of plastic surgeons. We would emphasise that the expected growth in demand for plastic surgery is for cosmetic purposes. Four key influences can be identified: (1) A growing celebrity culture ‘for all’ and the fact that what was once deemed the province of the famous is now seen as acceptable for anybody. (2) Increasing longevity and a desire to remain ‘forever young’. (3) Increasing affluence, as shown by long-term growth in real incomes, which provides people with the means to afford treatment. (4) Technological advances, which open up an increasing variety and array of treatments.

Golf professionals
A number of influences are combining at present to promote the game of golf and the demand for golf professionals as a result. (1) The so-called Tiger Woods factor, which has stimulated growth in the number of children playing the game. Suddenly golf has become ‘cool’ for kids. This is important because the traditional age breakdown for the sport showed a clear middle age bias. As these new young players move into adult hood they are also likely to encourage others to take-up the sport – the so-called ‘example effect’. The end result is significant potential growth in the number of golfers. (2) The female factor – here again there is evidence that golf is moving out of the traditional stereotype, with more, and younger women wishing to take-up the game. More players means increased demand for lessons and equipment, thereby increasing the demand for golf professionals. (3) Custom fitting club technology is just beginning to take-off. Custom fitting requires a personalised service one-on-one with a golf professional who can advise the most suitable equipment – club purchase therefore becomes far more individualised and not merely walking into a retail outlet and buying clubs off the rack. This also opens up new opportunities for golf professionals.

Tax advisers
The future need for tax advice is becoming more and more obvious for a variety of reasons: (1) The tax burden in the UK is growing as a proportion of GDP and is set to rise further over the next 5 years – on the basis of HM Treasury’s own projections. (2) There is a widespread consensus that the tax system is becoming more complex – nowadays even tax advisers are confused at times! (3) Over recent years there has been substantial growth in the number of top-rate taxpayers. (4) A range of tax based incentives for entrepreneurs and small firms have been introduced in recent years. All these trends imply the need for tax advice is on a rising trend.

Airline pilots
Long-term trends consistently suggest that the demand for air travel grows at a faster rate than economic growth. In other words, the share of air travel in the economy is set to continue to increase. More air travel means a greater demand for planes and pilots.

The long-term upward trend is understandable in the context of rising incomes (and the ability to afford more holidays, longer haul travel etc), increasing globalisation, cultural trends (such as gap year trips around the world for students) and the growth of low cost airlines.

We do not believe that air passengers will wish to fly in pilotless planes, even though technological developments are likely to facilitate this possibility within the next 10-20 years.

Aircrew
(explanation as for airline pilots)

Travel consultants
The explanation for growth in the number of specialised travel consultants includes the same factors identified for airline pilots and aircrew. However, growth in demand for specialised travel consultants is likely to reflect more individualist attitudes where particular consultants focus on specific market segments - and establish niche operations. For example, consultants who are experts in 5 star small luxury hotels around the world, or American golf holidays. These niche operators will be satisfying a demand from people who know what they want but do not have the time to find it.

Psychologists
A combination of factors leads us to the conclusion that the demand for psychologists will increase over the coming decade: (1) Life coaching as individuals seek to understand what their core abilities and motivations are and which occupations this should lead them to pursue. There is an incentive for employees to obtain such professional advice and employers to provide it.
One factor driving this process could be the expansion in further and higher education and an over supply of graduates who are unsure which career route to follow. (2) Worrying trends in divorce rates, family breakdown, dysfunctional families etc and the need for professional counselling.

Computer security consultants
The importance of computer security is already very apparent to large organisations, such as FTSE 100 companies, who invest considerable resources in maintaining the integrity of their IT systems. We believe that in the future, because of increasing dependence on IT for core business systems, even the smallest enterprises will want to be re-assured that they have taken all means possible to ensure their IT systems are safe and secure. This should provide huge potential growth for IT security audits.

Education tutors
Rising affluence and parental concerns about the quality of their children’s education means that increasing numbers of parents can afford to top-up their children’s education by the use of private tutors. Moreover, if further evidence emerges of some universities discriminating against applicants from independent schools, then parents may decide that the more effective route for their children is to remain within the state system whilst providing significant additional tutoring.

Home care nurses
The potential growth for home care nurses is obvious in the light of increasing longevity, as more people live longer lives. The cost of full-time residential care is and is likely to remain prohibitively expensive for large numbers of individuals. However, increasing numbers of individuals with a home and a care need (and sufficient income to pay for a degree of part-time support) are likely to emerge.


10 cold jobs 2003-2010:

Postal workers
The number of postal workers can be expected to significantly decline over the next decade due to a combination of supply side and demand side influences. On the supply side, massive losses by the Post Office are likely to result in continued reductions in the postal workforce as a result of restructuring and attempts to drive up productivity. On the demand side, increasing use of online and digital communication services could be expected to reduce the number of postal workers as well.

Whilst substantial declines in overall numbers can be expected, postal occupations will also evolve and require up-skilling e.g. a shift from simply delivering items to operating more specialised courier services requiring the use of IT for parcel monitoring etc.

Printers
The reasons for a future decline in the number of print workers are obvious. Increasing sophistication of PC based publishing and printing means that at relatively low cost more and more print activities can be brought in-house. One needs only to compare the quality and cost of ink jet and/or laser printers now, as compared with ten years ago, in order to grasp the future potential in this area.

Insurance brokers
We believe that over the coming decade, insurance purchase will continue to shift on-line. This is not to say that people will cease to require professional advice regarding the purchase of insurance policies, merely that many will be satisfied to receive this advice online. Of course, many people will want to retain the ‘personal contact’ factor, but we believe digital delivery will nonetheless result in a significant reduction in the number of insurance brokers.

Clerical jobs
Many basic clerical functions are gradually being replaced by information technology. In the late 1980s, the US Nobel Prize winning economist, Robert Solow, famously joked that you could see computers everywhere but the productivity statistics. This comment was based on clear evidence that although huge IT investment had been undertaken, companies had not integrated IT systems effectively. This began to change in the second half of the 1990s when the impact on productivity became much more apparent. The trend is only one way. B2B and B2C business activity is increasingly crowding out basic functions, involving paper based systems, in both small and large organisations.

Milk men
The expected decline in the number of milkmen is likely to be driven by changing retail patterns as people purchase more milk from supermarkets. This is not to say that everyone will purchase milk from supermarkets, merely that the numbers that do will become so large, it will not be economic to run milk franchises.

Estate agents
The potential for B2C activity in the estate agency market is obvious. Online agencies can provide potential homebuyers with a very accessible service from anywhere in the country. People can send their property details, which can be loaded on to a web site very quickly. Online delivery of this sort will reduce fixed costs and enable online agents to charge relatively low flat rate fees in comparison with current proportional charges extending into thousands of pounds. Of course, there will still be an important role for high street estate agents, but we suggest there will be fewer of them, owing to low cost online competition. It is quite possible that agents will then take on the role of professional valuation - on a fee basis.

Car dealers
Car dealers are expected to become vulnerable, to increasing B2C activity in car sales, as manufacturers either deal directly with customers online, or car dealerships become more concentrated with ‘large lot’ dealerships selling online and also providing very large stocks of vehicles – thereby enabling them to drive down prices when compared to smaller dealerships.

Newspaper boys/girls
Before the end of the next decade, we expect that all national newspapers will provide the option of receiving the full text of your morning newspaper online. This does not mean that the actual physical newspaper will disappear, merely that sufficient numbers will take-up the digital option, that newsagents will then find it uneconomic to maintain early morning delivery services. The fixed cost of a delivery service will then be spread over fewer customers, thereby raising the cost and further reducing demand.

Farm workers
The UK agricultural sector has weathered many storms in recent years, but farm incomes remain very low leading to a decline in the number of agricultural workers. Future reforms to the CAP will see an increasing move towards income support, thereby breaking the link between farm output and subsidy payments. The end result of these trends will almost certainly entail substantial changes in the countryside as agricultural workers turn to other activities such as tourism.

Telephone operators
We expect that IT developments in voice automation will lead to dramatic reductions in the number of telephone operators.
Notes

· Methodology: The research was undertaken by worldtocom.com futures network on behalf of City & Guilds in September 2003.

City & Guilds (http://www.city-and-guilds.co.uk) is the UK’s leading awarding body for work related, vocational qualifications. In total the organisation awards around 1 million certificates to learners each year on over 500 subjects ranging from creative studies to catering, management skills to manufacturing.